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Q4 2025 Quarterly investment outlook

Sector updates Research reports

This is our Q4 2025 quarterly investment outlook, a report from Sygnum Investment Research. 

Report highlights: 

  • The early-October cascade erased most of the summer’s gains for altcoins, as overleveraged positions and Trump’s renewed tariff skirmish triggered a cascade of liquidations across crypto exchanges. Bitcoin’s dominance had already fallen 12 percent as capital rotated into alts ahead of the drop, but the disappointing response to the Fed’s recent rate cut announcement further cut hopes of the highly-anticipated altseason short.
  • While the pattern of past crypto market cycles indicates we may be approaching the cycle top, global liquidity remains plentiful, and progressing institutional adoption, altcoin treasury demand, and streamlined US regulation may provide enough tailwinds to extend the cycle further.
  • However, sustained selling from long-term holders continues to weigh on Bitcoin’s price even as short-term accumulation rises. With BTC corporate purchases slowing and ETFs absorbing most of the flows, the question is now where the next wave of institutional capital will come from.
  • The US government shutdown has delayed ETF approvals and legislative timelines, but the crypto market structure bill continues to advance with strong bipartisan support, and rising traded volumes and on-chain activity, supported by institutional and liquidity trends and signs for a business cycle re-acceleration maintain expectations of a year-end rally.
  • The ETF pipeline now consists of more than 150 pending approvals, including multi-asset, leveraged and staking-enabled products from BlackRock, Fidelity, and many others. The SEC’s recently approved generic listing standards will likely lead to a bulk of ETF approvals once operations resume, potentially catalysing a fresh wave of institutional flows.
  • Regulatory clarity was achieved in the stablecoin sector following the passing of the GENIUS Act, which led to record-high inflows and an impressive list of TradFi institutions and corporates now entering the market.
  • Growing supply and demand imbalances across Bitcoin and Ethereum culminated in upside breakthroughs, with Bitcoin breaking all-time highs before its correction. Ethereum exchange reserves dropped a substantial 27 percent, while corporate treasuries grew their Ether holdings by a substantial 15x over the quarter to USD 24bn. With more than 40 percent of ETH’s liquid supply now locked out of circulation, a supply shock is likely should demand trends escalate.
  • The explosive growth of derivatives drove volumes to all-time highs, with DEX perp volumes accounting for nearly a quarter of the perp market share. However, most of this growth is linked to aggressive marketing and airdrop incentives by Binance-linked Aster, Lighter and Edge X, raising concerns about its underlying sustainability. BNB rallied to ATH’s as a result.
  • Institutional appetite has been strong, with open interest on the newly listed CME XRP and SOL futures increasing more than tenfold over the quarter.
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This report is available to qualified investors. Please find further insights and news from our team  here.

Disclaimer: The information in this publication pertaining to Sygnum Bank AG (“Sygnum”) is for general information purposes only, as per date of publication, and should not be considered exhaustive. This publication does not consider the financial situation of any natural or legal person, nor does it provide any tax, legal or investment advice. This publication does not constitute any advice or recommendation, an offer or invitation by or on behalf of Sygnum to purchase or sell any assets. No elements of precontractual or contractual relationship are intended. While the information is believed to be from accurate and reliable sources, Sygnum makes no representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. Sygnum expressly disclaims any and all liability that may be based on such information, omissions, or errors thereof. Any statements contained in this publication attributed to a third party represent Sygnum‘s interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Sygnum reserves the right to amend or replace the information, in part or entirely, at any time, and without any obligation to notify the recipient of such amendment / replacement or to provide the recipient with access to the information. Simultaneously, there is no obligation of Sygnum to inform recipients of information, if before provided information later becomes outdated, inaccurate or obsolete, unless otherwise provided by applicable law. The information provided is not intended for use by or distributed to any individual or legal entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to the law or regulatory provisions or in which Sygnum does not hold the necessary registration, approval authorisation or license. Except as otherwise provided by Sygnum, it is not allowed to modify, copy, distribute or reproduce, display, license, or otherwise use any content for commercial purposes.

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The information in this publication pertaining to Sygnum Bank AG (“Sygnum”) is for general information purposes only, as per date of publication, and should not be considered exhaustive. This publication does not consider the financial situation of any natural or legal person, nor does it provide any tax, legal or investment advice. This publication does not constitute any advice or recommendation, an offer or invitation by or on behalf of Sygnum to purchase or sell any assets. No elements of precontractual or contractual relationship are intended. While the information is believed to be from accurate and reliable sources, Sygnum makes no representation or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. Sygnum expressly disclaims any and all liability that may be based on such information, omissions, or errors thereof. Any statements contained in this publication attributed to a third party represent Sygnum‘s interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Sygnum reserves the right to amend or replace the information, in part or entirely, at any time, and without any obligation to notify the recipient of such amendment / replacement or to provide the recipient with access to the information. Simultaneously, there is no obligation of Sygnum to inform recipients of information, if before provided information later becomes outdated, inaccurate or obsolete, unless otherwise provided by applicable law. The information provided is not intended for use by or distributed to any individual or legal entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to the law or regulatory provisions or in which Sygnum does not hold the necessary registration, approval authorization or license. Except as otherwise provided by Sygnum, it is not allowed to modify, copy, distribute or reproduce, display, license, or otherwise use any content for commercial purposes.

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