Many crypto users and investors haven’t been thrilled with Ethereum’s token (Ether) performance over the last two years, and not without good reason.
With smooth technology upgrades, new scaling solutions, restaking options, as well as the recently approved Ether spot ETFs, most expected these factors to significantly increase demand for the largest smart contract platform’s token.
But Ether’s price hasn’t exactly delivered.
A few market pundits are starting to write Ethereum off, pointing to a rise in Ether exchange reserves (indicating increased selling pressure) and the lacklustre response to Ethereum ETFs (which have mostly seen negative flows) compared to their Bitcoin counterparts.
Can we really point the finger at Ethereum, though? Not really. The overall market has been choppy, and sentiment is shaky with mixed expectations. Despite rate cuts and regulatory support, the market seems distracted by recession fears, rumours of large Bitcoin sales by Mt. Gox creditors and the U.S. government, and the market’s failure to benefit from the positive economic backdrop. Other looming uncertainties such as the fear of an economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions have only further waned the appetite of investors.
But a deeper look behind the headline-grabbing gloom, there’s another story. Ether’s price might be falling, but its liquid supply is actually shrinking.
What does this mean exactly? If demand picks up next quarter and conditions turn more favourable, we might see a supply crunch that could bring positive momentum back to Ether. Here’s why.
Busting the stats myths
Media outlets like FXStreet were quick to mention a “significant” supply glut in ether exchange reserves, warning that this could ramp up selling pressure and drive prices down. But in reality, this so-called “glut” is less than 1 percent of exchange reserves, and these reserves still remain near their all-time lows – 18.7 million ETH or 15 percent of the total supply.
Spot Ether reserves are even less at around 8.4 million ETH, hitting all-time lows. Inflows are being matched with outflows, so any selling pressure is likely getting absorbed. The uptick in exchange reserves is mainly on derivative exchanges, where Ether is used as collateral for long/short positions.
Ether’s 78% gains (USD 2,282 to USD 4,066) from January to March have almost been wiped out, but exchange reserves have still dropped by 10 percent since the start of the year. That’s unusual since reserves and prices are usually inversely correlated; perhaps suggesting that investor confidence in Ether’s long-term value potential remains strong.
Source: Glassnode, The Block
Meanwhile, staking deposits continue to climb, increasing by nearly 20 percent since the start of the year. Over 34.5 million ETH (USD 81.3 billion) are currently staked or 28.8 percent of the total supply, which is an all-time high.
Investors seem either hungry for higher returns by restaking on platforms like EigenLayer (and more recently, Symbiotic) or are happy with a lower risk / lower reward option through traditional staking options and protocols. Either way, dollar values are down, Ether amounts are up.
This goes to show that demand for staking and restaking seems unfazed by Ether’s declining prices, so if this trend persists, it will continue to pull more Ether out of the available liquid supply.
Ethereum ETFs
The fact that Ethereum ETFs have proved less attractive to investors than Bitcoin ETFs could also be taken with a pinch of salt.
It should be remembered that Bitcoin ETFs were first movers, crashing through the SEC’s glass ceiling at the start of the year with a lot of publicity. The sudden approval of the Ethereum ETFs left issuers scrambling to market these products.
It’s worth pointing out that new investors to this asset class are also more likely to invest in the leading crypto assets (Bitcoin) before they feel more comfortable with alternatives.
Perhaps more significant, is the acknowledgement by US regulators that Ether is not a security, but a commodity, which removes a roadblock for a greater array of future investors into Ethereum ETFs.
Ether’s underperformance has been substantial
The poor performance of Ether compared to Bitcoin and a range of other altcoins so far this year cannot be ignored. Ether has traded poorly compared to Bitcoin and Solana, for example. The post-ETF period (and especially the year-end rally) saw Bitcoin rise 114 percent, Solana surge 564 percent, while Ethereum lagged behind with a miserly 27 percent increase.
Source: CoinMarketCap
But these factors behind Ether’s relatively weak performance could prove temporary – and indeed reversible if its shrinking liquid supply lines up with the right market conditions.
The drag effects:
- Ethereum is a constantly evolving technology that is reinventing itself operationally while aiming to stick to its original decentralised philosophy. The latest DenCun upgrade slashed transaction fees for Layer 2 protocols built atop the Ethereum blockchain. This has resulted in a surge of activity away from the foundational Ethereum Layer 1 towards Layer 2 projects.
- Rival Layer 1 blockchains, such as Solana, TRON and BNB, appear to have stolen a march on Ethereum by capturing market share. These were built after Ethereum and were therefore able to solve operational deficiencies without a series of upgrades. For example, Solana transaction volumes rising by 50 percent since the start of the year and recently reached an all-time high of 3.9 million active addresses. But the predominance of memecoin activity might prove much of this activity illusory and short-lived.
- The German government’s surprise decision to sell off USD 3 billion worth of seized Bitcoin shook the market a few months ago, and a lingering nervousness of further sell-side pressures coming from the return of Mt Gox Bitcoin to their rightful owners and rumours of the U.S government preparing to sell its Bitcoin holdings.
- Over the last several months, the whole crypto market has also been dragged back by macroeconomic and geopolitical events, such as persistently high interest rates reducing the appetite for riskier assets, uncertainty over the US presidential election, and global conflicts.
Potential catalysts
Ether is still the undisputed number two crypto behind Bitcoin, with a 13.56 percent market share of the USD 2.05 trillion market compared to just over 3 percent for Solana. Now with a shrinking liquid supply, there is possibly greater momentum shocks should the crypto market receive a boost.
This might arrive in the form of a positive economic backdrop, like the Fed announcing its first rate cut in four years (which typically shifts the flow of funds toward riskier assets), or further regulatory support and clarity after the US presidential election.
In addition, the current memecoin craze could faze out, reverting attention in the form of transaction activity back to more value-driven projects and substantial blockchains such as Ethereum.
And growing institutional interest in the crypto markets could accelerate demand for Ethereum ETFs in due course. With a favourable economic backdrop, looser liquidity conditions, and even some of the most conservative traditional investors (such as state pension funds) showing interest in crypto ETFs, a fresh wave of inflows could very well be the catalyst that triggers the supply crunch in Ether.
Concluding remarks
So what can take away from this? With an increasing amount of tokens locked up in staking protocols, while exchange reserves are not what they seem on first inspection, a supply crunch in Ether could mean that any momentum in Ether would be sharp and quick if the market rebounds next quarter.
There is a lot of nervous energy and hesitation on the sidelines, but the opportunity is there as we head into a fresh and potentially exciting quarter.
ENDS