This is our Q1 2026 quarterly investment outlook, a report from Sygnum Investment Research.
Report highlights:
- Geopolitical tensions and fresh tariff skirmishes involving the EU led to further escalation in the market. Central bank purchasing, a weakening dollar and mounting sovereign debt continued to underpin gold and silver, both of which reached all-time highs. As a result, precious metals again outperformed Bitcoin on the store of value trade.
- Despite improving fundamentals across much of the crypto ecosystem, Bitcoin and crypto assets have underperformed tech stocks, gold and silver by a wide margin. This is in part largely due to a combination of several factors – short-term capital rotating into high-beta (non-profitable) AI and tech companies and longterm BTC holders selling into cycle-top fears. Tightening liquidity conditions during the US government shutdown and liquidity still recovering after the October 10th deleveraging event is also a factor.
- The Department of Justice (DoJ) opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who disclosed the probe in a surprising public statement. He characterised this as an attempt to influence rate decisions by the Trump administration. Markets reacted to what was seen as a threat to monetary policy independence.
- The selling pressure by Bitcoin OGs appears to have eased since the start of the year with early signs of potential net accumulation. BTC holders overall, however, have experienced net realised losses for the first time since October 2023.
- The Fear and Greed indicator has recovered from historical lows, but liquidity has not fully returned after the October liquidation event, leaving prices exposed to sharper price swings if, and when, volatility and volumes pick up.
- The CLARITY Act ground to a temporary halt in the Senate after Coinbase withdrew its support, arguing that proposed amendments restricting stablecoin yields would not provide an even playing field against banks. Trump pledged to sign the bill at the WEF, and the US administration’s “pro-crypto” stance is now being scrutinised. It needs to show progress this quarter or risk crypto slipping down the policy agenda ahead of midterms. Any positive developments would likely benefit the market, and altcoins in particular.
- Rate cuts failed to ignite a rally in altcoins as cycle-top fears lingered and sustained selling by long-term Bitcoin holders weighed on sentiment throughout Q4 2025. QT effectively ended on December 1, 2025, and the question is now whether liquidity conditions alone are enough to improve risk appetite.
- Meanwhile, a fresh wave of crypto ETF filings emerged over the quarter including spot, index-linked, leverage and staking-enabled products. With US regulators now fully operational after a shutdown of record length, more approvals are likely to follow.
- Tokenisation trends are moving quickly as TradFi and crypto firms remain fully committed to bringing capital markets on-chain, with tokenised MMFs increasingly used as collateral and tokenised equities and commodities reporting new highs across all growth metrics.
- Crypto projects are now modifying their tokenomics to address investor concerns over inflation and the lack of value accrual. This is because as many sector tokens have been punished with substantial drawdowns despite the rise in on-chain activity and protocol revenues.
- Decentralised exchanges reported fresh highs, particularly in derivatives, as platforms with user-friendly interfaces and incentive programmes pulled flows from centralised exchanges. However, retention is now being tested as incentives end and tokens hit the market.
- Prediction market activity has reached pre-Trump election levels in terms of traded volumes and new market creation, with rumours of a token launch by Polymarket likely to bring further traction to the subsector.
This report is available to qualified investors. Please find further insights and news from our team here.
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